Stocks Commentary
Strange Gem
Update on strange gem: ABK
Referring to article "Pick up this strange Gem" written as of Nov 10th 2008.
Under sub-title "+++Other positive points to take note of++++" i quoted that one of the possible ways that ABK might recover is to tear up contracts on risky residential mortgages, this will in turn induced a strong recovery.
As of Thursday November 20, 2:51 pm ET , published article at
Ambac shares rise 80 percent after liabilities canceled
Despite Dow drastic drop of 445points.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081120/business_us_ambac_shares.html?.v=1
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:ABK - News) rose more than 80 percent on Thursday, after it reached an agreement to cancel contracts covering structured debt valued at $3.5 billion, allowing it to reduce loss reserves. Ambac Assurance Corp, Ambac's main unit, paid $1 billion to get out of four contracts it had written to guarantee collateralized debt obligations, reducing the bond insurer's liabilities. It said the terminations would allow it to reduce reserves set aside for market losses on these guarantees.
Ambac shares rose 86 percent to $1.42 on the New York Stock Exchange, after closing at 76 cents a day earlier.
Ambac's stock has lost nearly all its value over the last year, falling from $24.74 last November.
Bond insurers, which guarantee payments on debt in the event of default, have been hit hard by the credit crunch and have lost their "triple-A" credit ratings after posting billions of dollars of losses from exposure to mortgages and complex debt instruments, hampering their businesses.
Both Ambac, and its larger rival MBIA Inc (NYSE:MBI - News), have seen little new business since it lost its top ratings.
Research firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey on Thursday said Ambac's contract cancellations were "positive," but did not "answer ongoing business model concerns."
Bond insurers have been seeking federal support under the government's $700 billion financial rescue plan.
Friedman, Billins said short of government assistance, Ambac would have a "difficult road ahead."
(Reporting by Lilla Zuill)
Highlighted in turquoise indicates positive developments
Highlighted in red indicates negative developments
Because, one of my strategies is to wait until ABK prices drop to a range of $1.10 to $1.30, the share price has drop even lower then that at 76cents just yesterday and rose to $1.25 today, this fact alone should have induce anyone who followed this strategy to enter at a price below $1.10 ,giving to holder of this stock approximately 40-50% returns in just two days.
Again i have to emphasis that this strategy is not "value investing" but "Value Speculating" , and yes this term exist under Gramham's Intelligent Investor book. Because of upside odds are very low at $1.10 as deemed by my research, the upsides of any good news will catapult the stock and the chance of that happening is higher as compared to the downside risks.
Now ABK trades at $1.25 per share even though Dow has dropped 445 points, any recovery or bargain hunting to take place of two days of heavy selling is very possible and ABK stock could raise to a further $1.40-$1.60 region.
Did i apply my own strategy? Unfortunately i didn't, as i'm was stuck in camp yesterday doing guard duty..BASKET!
Under sub-title "+++Other positive points to take note of++++" i quoted that one of the possible ways that ABK might recover is to tear up contracts on risky residential mortgages, this will in turn induced a strong recovery.
As of Thursday November 20, 2:51 pm ET , published article at
Ambac shares rise 80 percent after liabilities canceled
Despite Dow drastic drop of 445points.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081120/business_us_ambac_shares.html?.v=1
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:ABK - News) rose more than 80 percent on Thursday, after it reached an agreement to cancel contracts covering structured debt valued at $3.5 billion, allowing it to reduce loss reserves. Ambac Assurance Corp, Ambac's main unit, paid $1 billion to get out of four contracts it had written to guarantee collateralized debt obligations, reducing the bond insurer's liabilities. It said the terminations would allow it to reduce reserves set aside for market losses on these guarantees.
Ambac shares rose 86 percent to $1.42 on the New York Stock Exchange, after closing at 76 cents a day earlier.
Ambac's stock has lost nearly all its value over the last year, falling from $24.74 last November.
Bond insurers, which guarantee payments on debt in the event of default, have been hit hard by the credit crunch and have lost their "triple-A" credit ratings after posting billions of dollars of losses from exposure to mortgages and complex debt instruments, hampering their businesses.
Both Ambac, and its larger rival MBIA Inc (NYSE:MBI - News), have seen little new business since it lost its top ratings.
Research firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey on Thursday said Ambac's contract cancellations were "positive," but did not "answer ongoing business model concerns."
Bond insurers have been seeking federal support under the government's $700 billion financial rescue plan.
Friedman, Billins said short of government assistance, Ambac would have a "difficult road ahead."
(Reporting by Lilla Zuill)
Highlighted in turquoise indicates positive developments
Highlighted in red indicates negative developments
Because, one of my strategies is to wait until ABK prices drop to a range of $1.10 to $1.30, the share price has drop even lower then that at 76cents just yesterday and rose to $1.25 today, this fact alone should have induce anyone who followed this strategy to enter at a price below $1.10 ,giving to holder of this stock approximately 40-50% returns in just two days.
Again i have to emphasis that this strategy is not "value investing" but "Value Speculating" , and yes this term exist under Gramham's Intelligent Investor book. Because of upside odds are very low at $1.10 as deemed by my research, the upsides of any good news will catapult the stock and the chance of that happening is higher as compared to the downside risks.
Now ABK trades at $1.25 per share even though Dow has dropped 445 points, any recovery or bargain hunting to take place of two days of heavy selling is very possible and ABK stock could raise to a further $1.40-$1.60 region.
Did i apply my own strategy? Unfortunately i didn't, as i'm was stuck in camp yesterday doing guard duty..BASKET!
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