Signs of Bottoming out.

by December 24, 2008

"Invest when fear is the greatest"-Warrant Buffet.
My favourite quote by my investment idol and mentor. Many experts and financial analysts have been trying to time out a bottom, even though its impossible to do so, don;t ask why its impossible to do so, its just the same as asking why did God allow Adam to eat the fruit if he is all knowing in the first place?

Likewise, if financial experts are not able to time to market, then who im i to do so? To make an important statement before i write out this article, is that im not trying to "time out" the bottoming of the market but to "look out for signs" of bottoming out.
Two important differences between the two notions, timing out the market is basically trying to use past data like for example using the percentage of decline from the great depression and trying to forecast/factor it into today's market trend , or using the average of the 1973 oil crisis add the decline in the asian financial crisis thus adding the percentage weight age calculation and forcasting it which gave raise to results like STI will hit bottom at 1600 or 1500, DOW will hit bottom at 7800 because... so on and so forth, its hectic, its very opinionated and sounds almost like bullshit. But looking out for signs of bottoming is much more easier,logical and maybe, just MAYBE more reliable then timing out the market.

So what are the signs to look out for bottoming of the market? In order to do that, i choose to look at two specific events

1) The previous peak bull year 2007

The signs in those years were

+Everyone was talking about investment,equities, shares ( remember China shares)
this includes, the hawker centre aunties,uncles,taxi drivers, the maids in orchard including prostitutes in geylang. I clearly remembered attending a TA (Technical analysis) conference Nov 2007, because i had passed my TA programme and was there to receive my certification. The room was packed with aunties and uncles, all of them including my lecturer were in united agreement that STI will hit 4000-4200 in the coming mths. Everyone was happy,optimistic and very very GREEDY.

-So if i were to reverse it, the sign to look out for is, everyone in previously mentioned , have stopped talking about investments, have shunned away from equities, have believed that once again stocks come from the devil. Everyone will be sad, pessimistic and very very FEARFUL.


+Experts like analysts/IMF forecasters/brokers during 2007 were issuing reports upon reports, screaming their lungs out about how good prospects are for the following year or years to come that stocks are the way to go, Soo many Strong Buy issues, analyst forecast and estimates were SO optimistic even for penny stocks, forecasting growth like 30-40%, likewise brokers were getting richer by the hour because trading activity ,buy sell buy sell buy sell was getting heavier and heavier each day, "STI trading volume reaches red zone of 4.7billion shares". Penny stocks then, like Alantac Tech: 50 cents per share, Jade tech at 43 cents and Baker Tech at 32 cents.

Blue chips like Cosco trading at $8.20, SGX at $15.10, Singtel at $4 plus and Keppel Corp at $16plus. Price to book value was like 4-5 times, PE ratio everywhere was exploding especially Raffles education 100 over times. IMF forecast next year's growth to be 3-4% because of raising China and India ,warns of inflation.


-Now reverse the points above and you get, signs like




IMF chief warns 2009 may be 'even darker'




Analysts cutting their forecast and their consensus estimates, they gave even very good companies like ChinaMilk/Erza bleak outlooks, they suddenly become very silent about reports on ferrochina which they so passionately issue "Stong buy" reports

Penny stocks, just as their name suggest, become penny value like 1-2cents etc :Jade as of Dec 24th 2008 trading at 1cent, Baker Tech at 2cents and Alantac at 4cents.

Blue chips are getting no bluer, in fact they are deteriorating almost every day, SGX now at 5.10, Cosco at 0.91 ouch! Singtel at $2plus and Keppel corp at $4plus. STI trading volume shrink to a low of 400-500millions.

+Government 3mth T-bill yields during 2007 was a temping 2.1% to soak up excess liquidity

-Government 3mth T-bill yields now, at 0.41% below Fixed deposit rates, (ok i'm sry i made a mistake, sometimes FD is indeed better then T-bills lol) very rare for this to occur though.


2)With the above mentioned, i now look at another event the 1997 Asian financial crisis and try to match its similar effects to today's event

1997 crisis: Experts were claiming that this problem will drag on for years! I actually when to the library to check out the 1997 news, titles like "Asian in deep trouble!" "Bleak outlook for the next 10 years" "A repeat of Japan's 10 year depression, Asia could be next" "Recession could be deeper for 2008"

2008 crisis:News paper and view from experts recently have titles like "Great depression no. 2?" "Take your $ out from stocks now, unless you want to hold for 5 years" "Greater then the great depression?" "World growth to slow? Don;t be too optimistic" "Asian will feel deep impact from US meltdown"

1997 crisis: I heard many stories of bankers in Asia or people related in the financial world were taking their lives away, committing suicide, jumping down HDBs etc, people then were blaming the Asian governments/ banks for many things.


2008 crisis: "Investor who lost big to Madoff kills himself" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081224/ap_on_bi_ge/madoff_investor_suicide, soo far only one or two related new of suicide, more to come? Maybe... but there are reports that people are feeling depressed, losing their live savings etc, again alot of blaming especially cases that involve Lehman brothers/Mini bonds/MAS should take charge/ President Bush as the worse president in History etc etc

1997 crisis: I looked into the advertisement section of strait times and TCS (Tcs is now known as Channel 5) Gurus at full force, claiming that they accurately predict this and that, broadcasting results of their trading activity "I made $100,000!! In this bear market!!", claiming to make lots of money during this bear run, pessimistic forecasters suddenly become famous on business times section, saying thing like "i told you so" "As mentioned before STI will hit.." blah blah blah.

2008 crisis: Just look at Business Times now, or the Strait times business section, i don;t have to write anything more.

Now, looking at the signs above they are indeed quite similiar, however the very important question still lingers. Is it time to invest? This question can only be answered by yourself and your judgement, to me i think we have already bottomed or rather missed the bottom and that slow recover is at hand. However i might be wrong, we still have problems like the Big Three car makers despite the loans given to them, we still have falling US house prices etc etc, then there is question that this crisis is as big as the great drepession which lasted for only 3 years without government help. Now the crisis is about 2years or so. Come to the worse just another year or pain? Who knows.. my advise for this coming christmas, Start investing for pity's sake.

Singapore Government T-bills

by December 15, 2008
Today's article will be on government securities, the reason why i got interested into this part of the investment spectrum (i usually go for equities) is because i suddenly found myself holding a lots of cash. Cash that are rotting away in my saving bank account like adolescent teenagers gathering around computer game shops, wasting their time away playing online games.

Then the question strikes me... what am i to do with this sum of money that i was soo blessed with? I couldn't just leave it idling around my account and let inflation eat it's value away, year after year, day after day. Plus, i needed the money to pay off the upcoming loans and university fees for the next few years to come, liquidity therefore has to be given top priority here.

So, how can one earn better returns without being exposure to any big or even systemic risks and yet have the privileged to use the cash at any given time ?

For the general public out there, many people will assume such an investment exist only in forms of Fixed Deposits offered by our local banks. However, in my opinion, Fixed deposits instrument do not offer very good interest rates (returns) at all! In fact if you take a quick look at the facts below, (to keep with consistency, we shall only look at 1 year rates, capping it at 50k)

Visit http://singaporesearchsite.com/singapore-tips/fixed-deposit-interest-rate/ for full chart

you will find that no yearly Fixed deposit rate reach above 1%, the most is offered by RHB at 0.935% with a 50k deposit. Now this fact alone, proves one point. That Fixed deposits gives out F***ing disgusting returns, and it makes me want to throw my shoes at them.

So is there a better alternative? One that is as safe, if not safer then a fixed deposit that gives better returns ?

Like choosing between Gold and Copper, the Singapore government securities also known as (SGS) is definitely a better alternative as compared to a FD and not many people know because the banks in this country keep so silent about.

So lets start with the basics, what is SGS?

SGS are marketable debt instruments issued by the Government of Singapore through the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). These debt instruments can be in the form of either Treasury bills or bonds. The Singapore Government is obliged to pay the holder of the Treasury bill or bond a fixed sum of money on the maturity date of the security. Thus, when you buy SGS, you are lending your money to the Singapore Government. Although SGS cannot be cashed in before their maturity dates, investors can always sell them in the SGS market. SGS primary dealers are prepared to buy and sell SGS at any time.

So the next question is why does the government issue these instruments?

They do so because of the following reasons
1)Provide a liquid investment alternative with little or no risk of default for individual and
institutional investors;

2)Establish a liquid government bond market, which serves as a benchmark for the
corporate debt securities market; and (simply means, other companies uses this rates as a comparison to give out their own loans and bonds, wonder why banks don't follow suit?)

3)Encourage the development of skills relating to fixed income financial services
Available in Singapore.

SGS's investments are for?

People who have lots of spare cash, either waiting to invest (but still don;t know what to invest) or need to use the money in the near future. Earn extra interest given the amount of short time.

People who do not want to be exposed to systemic/market risks, people who want to invest in very very very safe investments.

People who likes the feeling of the government owing them money.

People who wants to diversify their portfolio, instead of holding cash or putting in FD , this is a better alternative.

Types of instruments offered by SGS

T-bills: They are short-term securities that mature in one year or less from their issue date. T-bills are bought and sold at a price less than their face (par) value, and when they mature, the Government will pay the holder of the T-bill an amount of S$ equivalent to the face value of the bond. Therefore, the interest earned on the T-bill is the difference between the purchase price of the security and its face (par) value. The Singapore Government issues 3-month and 12-month T-bills. For example

Issue code: BQ08150N 3mth T-bills is sold at $0.98 per unit. You bought 1000 units, therefore you spent $980. After three mths, the government will return you a full $1000, this $1000 is known as the "par value" and is 100% guaranteed by the government. Thus your profit is $20. So if you want to calculate the yields (how much you got back as a percentage) $20/$980*100%=2%

Bonds:They are debt securities that pay a fixed rate of interest (called the coupon), usually every six months, for the life of the securities and then their face (par) values on redemption on maturity. In Singapore, SGS bonds are issued with maturities of 2, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years. And if you are wondering what is the meaning of securities, simply go look up the dictionary.

Visit http://www.sgs.gov.sg/pub_guide/faqs/publ_faqindinvestors.html#4 for more examples


Is SGS T-bills better then short term Fixed Deposits?

Just to keep things simple, looking at only 3 mths FD vs 3mths T-bills rates. On average FD 3mths rate is 0.35% vs 3mths T-bills rates of 0.56%-0.675%. Then some of you might wonder the difference between the current rate of T-bills and FD is not much, only 0.34% difference. Consider this , a difference of 0.34% of $1000 is $3.40, if you have $100,000 the difference is $340, likewise $1million is $3400 for every 3 mths. Plus rates in T-bills last year was a whooping 2.1% for a 3mth deposit.

What determines the yield rate?

The yield rate is determined by a few factors, factors like the SIBOR/
Domestic Interbank Rates/ the amount you bid, the outcome of the bidding/ and many other factors that are interlinked between the world's markets.

HUH? Got bidding arh?
Yes, that whats makes investing in SGS fun. The bidding will involve competing for the amount of yield (returns) you want to get. Say for example, you want a return of 1.25%, then in your application, you state that you want to bid at 1.25%. However, the higher your bid, the chances of you getting the bill is lower, because other people might bid at 1.1% or 0.90% and in this case, they will get the bill first (priority is given to the lowest bidder). Take note also that if your bid is above the "cut off bid" say at 1.09% (lol) you get nothing.

Then again, you can try bidding again for another T-bill issue, (the government issues T-bills on a weekly basis). There are soo many T-bill issues, that one might wonder which one to pick, but according to my interview with the SGS lady on the phone, she says it will depend on your holding preferred period like how long you want to hold for say 3mths or 6mths or 1 year, the yield will then depend on your luck and the outcome. And if your not comfortable bidding and finding it too troublesome, apply for non-competitive bid which will give you the best outcome of the bids provided the T-bill has a uniform pricing function.

So how to apply?

Simple! Go to any of your local bank like DBS/UOB* , walk towards the "can i help you?" table and talk to the lady. Tell her you want to apply for Government T-bills. The lady will kindly usher you to a relationship manager , that's where you have to be careful, because many banks do not encourage this type of investment, they will probably suggest you to buy their structured products for better returns. Note also that they wouldn't be able to or not willing to answer your questions regarding SGS products because its not under their bank's products. So if you survive their persuasions to buy their products, they have no choice but to issue you a form, thats where your IC comes into play. Have also you bank account no. ready, the process of creating your very own SGS account is at hand.

(Takes about 5 working days). Once your account is done up by them, they will issue you another form, which is the bid form, where you indicate which type of T-bills or bond you want to invest in? What yield you want to bid? Which Issue code? Competitive or non-competitive? Etc. So before you apply for the bid form, make sure you know what type of Bills or bonds you want, how long you want it to be, and what kind of returns you expect from etc.

Any trouble like don't know, what the hell I'm talking about, feel free to call up the nice SGS lady at Tel: (65) 6229-9150 or email them at sgddiv@mas.gov.sg.

Another alternative is to open an account with POEMs visit http://singapore-fixed-deposits.blogspot.com/2008/03/treasury-bills-your-alternative-to.html for more information.

What other people say about SGS

"Under the current market turmoil, there are still some safe havens for your investment monies. Besides Singapore Treasury Bills, Singapore Government Bonds are also one way to invest in relatively safe assets. The MAS’s recent auction for its 5 year Singapore Government bonds yields 2.65% per annum which is higher than even the highest fixed deposits promotions by the banks. This is one area for consideration for those risk adverse investors. Definitely safer than Structured Products such as Lehman Minibonds or DBS High Notes 5 series.
T-bills are short-term securities that mature in one year or less from their issue date. T-bills are bought and sold at a price less than their face (par) value, and when they mature, the Government will pay the holder of the T-bill an amount of S$ equivalent to the face value of the bond. Therefore, the interest earned on the T-bill is the difference between the purchase price of the security and its face (par) value. The Singapore Government issues 3-month and 12-month T-bills"-
blogger


"Because many people do not know about such instruments, their ignorance has caused them to lose out the ability to maximize their returns even under very safe investments"-Financial planner

"Most clients, come in every 3mths to renew la. So if you ask me , whether this product can lose $, i don't think so. Why would clients keep coming back to renew their application if they are losing money?"-Karren Tan Relationship Banker


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