Oh! the WONDERFUL ratios

by December 28, 2009


My classmates and i recently created a group for young value investors to discuss,debate and disgust with each other. Among some of the topics, i feel that relearning all the useful finanical ratios is important. Hences the following..

#EPS
Calculated as:
(Net income -dividends on preferred stocks)/average outstanding shares

Understanding: The portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company's profitability

Examples: Assume that SMART has a net income of $25 million. If the company pays out $1 million in preferred dividends and has 10 million shares for half of the year and 15 million shares for the other half, the EPS would be $1.92 (24/12.5). First, the $1 million is deducted from the net income to get $24 million, and then a weighted average is taken to find the number of shares outstanding (0.5 x 10M+ 0.5 x 15M = 12.5M).

Application: Investors also need to be aware of earnings manipulation that will affect the quality of the earnings number. It is important not to rely on any one financial measure, but to use it in conjunction with statement analysis and other measures


#Simple PE ratio
Calculated as: Market value per share/Earnings per share

Understanding: This ratio basically shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. If a company was currently trading at a multiple (P/E) of 20, the interpretation is that an investor is willing to pay $20 for every $1 of current earnings.

Examples: Your chicken rice stall currently trading at $43 a share in the stock market and earnings over the last 12 months was $1.95 per share which is your EPS, the P/E ratio for the stock would be 22 times.

Application: A low PE ratio is considered as below 20. A high PE ratio is 20 and above in general. However it is best to compare it with another company of the same nature of business.


#PBV
As known as price to book or price book value
Calculated as: PBV= STOCK PRICE* ALL OUTSTANDING SHARES/ (TOTAL ASSETS-INTANGIBLE ASSETS+ ALL LIABILITIES)

Understanding: A ratio used to compare a stock's market value to its book value. It is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter's book value per share. This ratio also gives some idea of whether you're paying too much for what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately.

Examples: Companies with a regular inflow of new assets, such as capital expenditures in the case of capital commercial trust bought on march 2009 , the share price was trading at $0.70, if the trust delist and give back all the asset back to its shareholder, it would be roughly $1.40 per share. So we take 0.70/1.40 we have a book value of 0.5. So in other words, good value could be found if the company is trading way below its PBV (Below 1)

Application:
P/B is best used for asset-heavy companies, such as financial institutions, manufacturing companies, and other capital-intensive industries. However, this ratio has a weakness, it does tell you whether the assets are really worth that much (asset bubbles), moreover companies that have super low PBV are usually entities with bad management.


#ROA
Calculated as: ROA = Net income / Total Assets
Understanding: The Return on Assets (ROA) percentage shows how profitable a company's assets are in generating revenue. This number tells you "what the company can do with what it's got", i.e. how many dollars of earnings they derive from each dollar of assets they control. It's a useful number for comparing competing companies in the same industry.
Application: Return on assets is not useful for comparisons between industries because of factors of scale and peculiar capital requirements (such as reserve requirements in the insurance and banking industries). Since the figure for total assets of the company depends on the carrying value of the assets, some caution is required for companies whose carrying value may not correspond to the actual market value.


#ROE
Return on Equity (ROE, Return on average common equity, return on net worth)

Calculated as: Net income / average share holder equity

Understanding: This ratio measures the rate of return on the ownership interest (shareholders' equity) of the common stock owners. ROE is viewed as one of the most important financial ratios. It measures a firm's efficiency at generating profits from every dollar of net assets (assets minus liabilities), and shows how well a company uses investment dollars to generate earnings growth.

Application:
But not all high-ROE companies make good investments. Some industries have high ROE because they require no assets, such as consulting firms. Other industries require large infrastructure builds before they generate a penny of profit, such as oil refiners. You cannot conclude that consulting firms are better investments than refiners just because of their ROE. Generally, capital-intensive businesses have high barriers to entry, which limit competition. But high-ROE firms with small asset bases have lower barriers to entry.

Limitations: ROE is presumably irrelevant if the earnings are not reinvested.
• The sustainable growth model shows us that when firms pay dividends, earnings growth lowers. If the dividend payout is 20%, the growth expected will be only 80% of the ROE rate.
• The growth rate will be lower if the earnings are used to buy back shares. If the shares are bought at a multiple of book value (say 3 times book), the incremental earnings returns will be only 'that fraction' of ROE (ROE/3).
• New investments may not be as profitable as the existing business. Ask "what is the company doing with its earnings?"
• Remember that ROE is calculated from the company's perspective, on the company as a whole. Since much financial manipulation is accomplished with new share issues and buyback, always recalculate on a 'per share' basis, i.e. earnings per share/book value per share.

#ROI
Return on investment (ROI)
Calculated as: Net income/ total investment by the company (looking under cash flow investment)

Understanding: Also known as the rate of profits; the amount of money gained or lost may be referred to as interest, profit/loss, gain/loss, or net income/loss. The money invested may be referred to as the asset, capital, principal, or the cost basis of the investment.

Examples: A $1,000 investment that earns $50 in interest obviously generates more cash than a $100 investment that earns $20 in interest, but the $100 investment earns a higher return on investment.
• $50/$1,000 = 5% ROI
• $20/$100 = 20% ROI

Application: It is common practice in finance to estimate monetary returns by averaging periodic rates of return; these estimations are most useful when the averaged periodic returns are all positive, all negative, or have low variances.


#Profit margins

Calculated as: Net income/ Sales

Understanding: Refers to a measure of profitability. It is calculated using a formula and written as a percentage or a number. The profit margin is mostly used for internal comparison. It is difficult to accurately compare the net profit ratio for different entities. Individual businesses' operating and financing arrangements vary so much that different entities are bound to have different levels of expenditure, so that comparison of one with another can have little meaning

Examples:
China Milk product limited business has many segments, one of its segment which is the bull semen trade & sales has a profit margin of 35%, as investors you want this margin to be stable or go higher.

Application: Many a times, new investors get tricked into investing companies with super high margins such as Sino tech fibre which sells cloths, since margins is highly dependent on the business outlook and competition, it is wise to find companies whose profit margins have been sustained or increasing throughout the years (say about 5-8 years)

#Current ratio

Calculated as: Current assets/ Current liabilities

Understanding: A liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations

Examples: The ratio is mainly used to give an idea of the company's ability to pay back its short-term liabilities (debt and payables) with its short-term assets (cash, inventory, receivables). The higher the current ratio, the more capable the company is of paying its obligations. A ratio under 1 suggests that the company would be unable to pay off its obligations if they came due at that point. While this shows the company is not in good financial health, it does not necessarily mean that it will go bankrupt - as there are many ways to access financing - but it is definitely not a good sign

Application: The current ratio can give a sense of the efficiency of a company's operating cycle or its ability to turn its product into cash. Companies that have trouble getting paid on their receivables or have long inventory turnover can run into liquidity problems because they are unable to alleviate their obligations. Because business operations differ in each industry, it is always more useful to compare companies within the same industry.

Hock Lian Seng IPO.

by December 17, 2009
A quick information on Hock Lien Seng for people who have bid for their IPO shares.


got my hands on the propsectus the next day and found that the financials diclosed to us by the broker were inaccurate (bottom line) always check what you are being told with the official documentation. Here is what I found out on going briefly through the prospectus:

a) gross cash as at end Dec 2008 was S$62.9mn and as at end of June 2009 was S$106.8mn.

b) prepayment was S$7.7mn. There was no debt with shareholders funds of S$33.18mn

c) Net profit margin since 2007 till H1-2009 is between 7-12%

d) company has an order book over 4 projects worth S$1.1bn to be completed between 2009 till 2015

e) IPO comprises 110mn new shares at S$0.25 bringing total issued share base to 509.97mn

f) issue manager is UOB with Kim Eng being the placement agent

The issue looked undervalued for the following reasons:

a) after the IPO - the gross cash of the company would be S$133mn compared to its post IPO market capitalisation of S$127mn - so its trading below cash levels

b) net profit for 2009 should come in between S$19-20mn based on its half year net profit of S$9.39mn. Net profit of 2008 was S$15.54mn

c) IPO PER based on expected net profit of S$19mn is 6.7 (fully diluted) but the business is actually free given that market capitalisation is below cash

d) the order book of S$1.1bn with more than S$1bn due between 2010 till 2015 means that if net profit margins of 7% are maintained will generate a future net income stream of about S$74.2mn - assuming they dont get any new contracts from now (which seems unlikely).

So if the company can trade up to where its peer construction group is trading at -10 times than based on FY2009 earnings - the conservative price target is S$0.37 a gain of 48%.

Some concerns - why does the company need a listing given that it has so much cash ? One possibility is that as its undertakes larger and larger cotracts, it needs more money for its performance bonds. Why is the placement agent Kim Eng and not UOB Kay Hian given that the issue manager is UOB - maybe the issue is too small. I dont have the answers but on the surface, it looks like an attractive IPO and if you are like my golf buddy being offered some placement script - I think its worth taking some shares....for at least 50% upside. But this is golf course analysis - our analyst will produce a more formal review later this week before the close of the IPO this Friday.

For your amusement =D

by December 13, 2009

Rise of the PENNY STOCKS?!

by December 08, 2009


I was cleaning my room one rainy morning, as I stood there miserable with my hands all black and dusty; strong gusts of wind welcome itself into my room and blew stuff all over. Like a little annoying kid that have gone out of control, my documents, old newspapers, dated research reports and past homework flew like never before. Frustrated, i decided to just stop for awhile and enjoy the strong breeze while my stuff continues to get bashed by the naughty wind.

I however spotted an old newspaper cutting that was stuck between my 8days (nearly flew out the window), as i held and took a good look at it, i found something interesting to talk about.

Dated Thursday August 2 2007 Money page , title “End of the penny party as share prices take a dive” the article reads, that the penny dropped with a resounding crash yesterday: Small-cap stocks are no longer a licence to print money. Some shares dived more than 20% while the UOB Sesdaq (now is known as catalyst) plunged 10.3%. Shocked retail investors- the main buyers of penny shares, could do little but watch as their hefty paper profits were washed away in a tide of red ink. One investor whose portfolio plunged 10% told the Straits Times: “Bloody hell! It was a bloodbath la, can’t do much I’ll just have to ride it out” . Construction sectors stocks were the worst hit yesterday, with no gainers, 32 losers and six closing unchanged. The biggest loser in the sector was Permasteelisa Pacific Holdings, which plunged 8 cents or 18.6%. Axle-maker Baker Technology was down 8.5cents or 20.2%, while Chasen Holdings known as China Entertainment Sports dropped half a cent to 1.5 cents.

Biggest loser over the five-day free fall was Alantac Technology, down 46.08% to 27.5cents, another punter’s favourite-Jade Technologies slumped almost 31% to 30.5 cents over the same period. UOB Kay Hian the biggest brokerage in Singapore restricted online trading in 13 stocks earlier this month, these include Alantac, Ban Joo, BBR Holdings and Jade. The article goes on to ask, is the worst over? The expert response was “they usually last 16 trading days based on the last four corrections, a month after the last four corrections the market would resume its normal behaviour after a few days if fickleness combined with fear, so it is a waiting game for those with nerves” Another investor who lost 10% said “Im quite confident the market will rebound, as corporate profits and economic fundamentals are still very strong”
Based on hindsight, we can see how short-sighted people were at that point in time, experts were giving wrong advice and retailers were as oblivious as ever. We also see major investment errors such as holding on to losing positions and hoping for a rebound. Nevertheless, what’s past is the past. But like many things that happened in the past, the probability of it happening it again i believe is quite high (talking about cycles in the market). So my next question is, will penny stocks rise again? Given that they have already tumble so badly these past two years? We relook at past penny stocks that rode the rally and made huge profits for investors
1) Alantac Technology estimated highest price : $0.33
2) Stratech Systems : $0.06
3) Middle East Development: $0.26
4) K Plas Holdings : $0.13
5) VGO: $0.07
6) Armarda Group:$0.27
7) Advance System Automation: $0.10
8) Lereno Bio-Chem : $0.14
9) Eastgate Tech:$0.07
10) Baker Tech:$0.35
11) Oculus:$0.24
12) Lantrovision:$0.21
13) The Lexicon Group:$0.07
14) Berger International:$0.19
15) Amplefield:$0.06
16) HLG Enterprise: $0.42
17) Startech Electronics: $0.06
18) Jade Tech:$0.33
19) Select Catering services:$0.55
20) Cyber Village Holdings:$0.10

What much do you know about Gold?

by December 05, 2009


Im clueless about gold. How does one go about knowing the true value of gold? Unlike shares, or real estate ,the precious mental (i also don't understand why is it that precious) does not generate cash flow! To me it only provides bright golden lights that look good on black people's skin. Ive heard Gold prices touches $1221 per Oz this week, shocked by the raise of this mental, i took look at some reasons why people are buying gold.

Positive on GOLD

+People say the $US dollar is weak and is getting weaker due to national economic policies which don't appear to have an end.

+Gold price appreciation makes up for lost interest, especially in a bull market.
The last four years are the beginning of a major bull move similar to the 70's when gold moved from $38 to over $800.

+Central banks in several countries have stated their intent to increase their gold holdings instead of selling.

+All gold funds are in a long term uptrend with bullion, most recently setting new all-time highs.

+The trend of commodity prices to increase is relative to gold price increases.

+Basic demand and supply of economics suggests that in the world, gold production (supply)is not matching demand. The price is assumed to go up with assumed increase in demand.

+So where does this consumption come about? In India and China, their demand for gold is ever increasing with their increase in national wealth.

+Several gold funds reached all-time highs in 2007 and are still trending upward.

+The short position held by hedged gold funds is being methodically reduced.

+U.S. government economic policies over the past decade have systematically projected the U.S. economy down a road with uncontrollable federal spending and an uncontrollably increasing trade deficits. Both causes the dollar to lose its international value and will increase the price of alternative investments, such as gold.

+With the recent devaluation of many international currencies, the U.S. dollar was the international safe haven of last resort. Some are seeing signs of this ending due to many financial factors, the most important one being a falling dollar.

+There are over One Trillion dollars ($1,500,000,000,000) of U.S. debt owned by foreigners,hence the fall in dollar as it is not backed up by real value but "confidence" of the nation.

+Gold has been a proven method of preserving value when a national currency was losing value. If your investments are valued in a depreciating currency, allocating a portion to gold assets is similar to a financial insurance policy.

Now i'll explore reasons why gold isn't the right investment

-Gold doesn't pay income or interest.
Except for the last five years, gold has been in a bear market after a peak in 1980.

-Central banks have tons of bullion which they occasionally threaten to sell.
If you don't count the last five years, gold stocks have not done well either.

-Since gold funds have made big moves over the past five years,espcially this year..reaching $1200 and all it's time for them to drop back? Beaucse i don;t know how to value it, i also cannot say it has or hasnt reach a fair value based on price alone. But i know one thing for sure, the higher a price you buy, the harder you fall.

Some ways of investing in GOLD

Investment in gold can be done directly through ownership, or indirectly through certificates, accounts, spread betting, derivatives or shares.

Other than storing gold in a safe deposit box at a bank or in your home (btw if i really have gold i would store it under my chinchilla cage hehe), gold can also be placed in allocated (also known as non-fungible), or unallocated (fungible or pooled) storage with a bank or dealer.
Other ways include investing in

Gold bullion. - Refiners produce gold bars from one gram to 400 ozs.

Gold coins. - The most popular are one oz coins such as the American Eagle, Canadian
Maple Leaf, the South African Krugerrand, and the Austrian Vienna Philharmonic. They are easy to keep and transport and closely match the price of gold with a small premium. More specific details.

Numismatic coins. - Older coins which fit the description of collectibles have a premium to the value of gold included in the coin. The holder is dependent upon an accurate and fair appraisal.

Gold certificates. - A certificate which represents ownership of gold bullion held
by a financial institution for convenient and safe storage. There is a fee for storage and insurance.

Gold futures and options. - A futures contract traded on one of the futures exchanges, such as the COMEX in New York. This method is generally leveraged and options provide price movement much more than that of gold itself. It can be used to sell short and can be used to benefit from a drop in the price of gold.
Gold Mining stocks. - Stock ownership of a company traded on one of the exchanges. The price movement is dependent not only upon the price of gold, but also upon the future of the corporation and management. It's price movement is almost always more than the movement of gold itself. Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is one way to invest in stocks.

Jewelry. - Representing the largest consumption of gold each year, jewelry is a major method of savings in developing economies.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)- Perhaps the safest method of buying and owning gold by buying shares in a fund based solely on the existing market price of gold. No leverage or storage problems. Etc: UOB Gold Units, DBS Gold unit trusts.

Gold Mutual funds. - A relatively safe method of buying and owning gold stocks allows the owner to diversify among many stocks and allows the investing decisions to be made by a professional. Investment methods vary among funds and provide many different styles of portfolio management for an investor to choose from. Prices move faster and further in both directions than the price of gold.


What some expert say about GOLD

Gold has been, more often than not, regarded as a good hedge against inflation. With the skyrocketing prices of commodities in the first half of last year(2008), inflation across the world started to move towards double-digit terriory. Countires like India and China had inflation of upwards of 12%. With the rising inflation gold was a prime investment theme then. Inflation has now fallen back to single-digit levels in most economies and there seems to be a real threat of deflation with falling consumption.
After having exhuasted all the above theories, the lastest story is that of safe investment in uncertain times. With falling stock prices, falling treasury yields and the sovereigns default risk inching upwards, investing in gold seems to be the buzz word again. The reason this time is that gold is a real tangible that has been considered valuable for centuries. The supply of gold is limited, hence making it a perfect investment.

Central banks across the world have tonnes of bullion which they occasionally use a political motives to threaten to sell. The question is will they act on this threat if national debt needs to be repaid? Central banks have pledged gold in the past to obtain foreign debt.
Does gold growth with time or generate income or pay interest?
Consider holding physical gold, it incurs storage, insurance and even GST charges.
What would happen if the gold funds faced redemption pressure or if the IMF decided to sell its gold reserves?

Finally in my opinnon, investing in gold now.. is not of value, perhaps then i should seek more understand of the material and how to derive its true value. If i can't understand it wouldnt invest, another golden rule in my principles of investment. On another note, Akat and i wishes all my readers and friends a happy and wonderful new year ahead. =D
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